Formula

 
For years I've been honing in on a Projection Formula that's sole purpose is to defeat the Oddsmakers at 52.5% (anything less means a loss).  It started in 2003, and evolved to only select games at 56.5% til 2009, but changed to 57.3% for all the games (2008-2011) after I adjusted for schedule strength (my most important stat when defeating the oddsmakers) and momentum.  Another category I have is "What's Due" which will likely change in the future because it is the most inaccurate of the categories.

Projected Stats and Score:


  rush   pass   sack                   0.40   0.20 0.15 0.05 0.20
  att yards att yards no yards   t/os ST pen projection  spread score   trend   year due prev con
Buffalo Bills 26 104 33 203 1 -5 301 3.3 -57 -36   17.2   3   14   16   23 20 21
San Francisco 49ers 33 193 30 224 3 -16 400 1.2 57 -43 -18.2 35.4 -9.0 45 -26.8 41 -25.9 42 -1.6 25 -3.6 23 -9.4 30

-Above the Projected score has the 49ers winning 35-17 (actual score was 45-3)
-40% of the score is based on momentum/trend
-Based on previous years and what's due, the 49ers only cover 1-3 points.
-I'm in the middle of improving those categories based on coaching/QB changes and injuries.
-A very conservative (non momentum & non schedule) projected score had SF -9.4 which was near the spread.
-My "stats" with momentum and schedule account for 60% of the formula and had SF -26 because I'm way ahead of Vegas.

I account for all the stats (example of some of the offensive stats)


Attempts att-% avg      
ru pass sac tot ru pass sac ru comp att sac com% int int% ret fum fum% lost% punts punt% p-avg ret% r-avg
LEAGUE avg 27.08 35.62 2.33 65.03 0.4165 0.5835 0.0613 4.13 11.77 7.30 6.61 0.6203 0.93 0.0260 16.78 1.33 0.0233 0.5078 4.82 0.0741 45.59 0.4594 10.18
off
Attempts att-% avg     def  
3.3 ru pass sac tot ru pass sac ru comp att sac com% int int% ret fum fum% lost% punts punt% p-avg ret% r-avg
Buffalo Bills 29.0088 31.5263 1.431 61.97 0.4681 0.5319 0.0434 4.52949 12.5339 7.27851 3.46276 0.55641 1.92893 0.05862 14.9137 1.74814 0.0303 0.67690602 5.23725 0.0811 42.3507 0.44603 18.36064
Miami Dolphins 35.0687 36.7572 2.0966 73.92 0.4744 0.5256 0.0540 4.46828 14.0313 7.93521 8.66018 0.57857 1.35048 0.03759 8.86041 1.42567 0.0229 0.7531374 4.86569 0.0672 50.4408 0.69378 9.387908
New York Jets 25.55414 33.2711 1.83879 60.66 0.4212 0.5788 0.0524 3.11624 12.1773 5.88848 4.62452 0.48303 1.08551 0.03259 19.0916 1.82211 0.0371 0.69643115 6.12206 0.1008 42.1851 0.45594 9.840659
New England Patriots 35.60615 39.9822 1.86497 77.45 0.4597 0.5403 0.0446 4.47503 13.0654 8.46181 6.09692 0.66805 0.24366 0.00629 2.76908 1.41877 0.0226 0.45769078 4.02702 0.0535 38.6789 0.1973 7.594764
Baltimore Ravens 25.45775 40.8954 2.27517 68.63 0.3710 0.6290 0.0527 4.52387 12.8193 8.07696 5.96481 0.63597 0.83846 0.02069 11.9565 0.68823 0.0118 0.3307662 4.7271 0.0695 47.1515 0.41178 13.62884
Pittsburgh Steelers 23.42274 38.7801 2.65995 64.86 0.3611 0.6389 0.0642 2.74302 10.674 7.44485 5.70558 0.67158 0.30233 0.00751 35.2464 1.98141 0.0324 0.47226471 3.69346 0.0550 39.1183 0.5416 5.520972
Cleveland Browns 18.83065 44.2639 2.17802 65.27 0.2885 0.7115 0.0469 3.85283 11.4435 6.25491 6.28325 0.56071 1.42065 0.03292 23.1088 1.37911 0.0274 0.38217664 6.57794 0.1032 43.6002 0.25307 19.48744
Cincinnati Bengals 28.68043 30.4772 2.43841 61.60 0.4656 0.5344 0.0741 3.69793 13.7169 9.24671 5.76381 0.65793 1.02623 0.03286 9.58328 1.31179 0.0217 0.62031978 3.53943 0.0562 43.1654 0.25679 5.738309
Jacksonville Jaguars 24.83818 29.5166 3.18235 57.54 0.4317 0.5683 0.0973 4.74674 10.5033 6.01921 7.00318 0.59677 0.375 0.01323 20.1665 1.50283 0.0324 0.4304644 6.35392 0.1145 52.8986 0.56704 9.866732
Tennessee Titans 21.60032 36.3463 1.60939 59.56 0.3627 0.6373 0.0424 4.39454 12.3128 7.78056 5.84056 0.66731 1.00089 0.02908 37.2385 1.32388 0.0268 0.69981699 4.89118 0.0865 50.8347 0.42838 6.770454
Indianapolis Colts 26.12234 40.0389 1.42986 67.59 0.3865 0.6135 0.0345 3.74226 12.8624 6.86518 9.52659 0.53412 1.10142 0.02753 19.9944 0.55622 0.0100 0.86727908 5.44191 0.0806 49.3879 0.58801 8.067477
Houston Texans 34.64902 29.3142 0.69232 64.66 0.5359 0.4641 0.0231 3.68585 11.1441 7.41569 6.10667 0.64265 0.04798 0.00158 7.48055 0.5766 0.0089 0.58655337 5.52008 0.0825 45.7796 0.57304 9.597303
Denver Broncos 30.37752 40.2153 1.8048 72.40 0.4196 0.5804 0.0430 4.06572 12.0011 7.62611 5.95316 0.64911 0.63288 0.01608 25.5132 1.03497 0.0168 0.92476826 3.8347 0.0540 48.929 0.43812 5.810173
San Diego Chargers 27.33133 30.0582 2.37201 59.76 0.4573 0.5427 0.0731 3.71215 10.2145 6.95288 6.10755 0.66117 1.16886 0.03777 3.34741 1.91767 0.0332 0.30917098 4.12745 0.0672 50.0691 0.59057 13.5873
Oakland Raiders 18.3544 38.6867 1.76555 58.81 0.3121 0.6879 0.0436 3.79658 11.1058 6.70377 6.93342 0.60767 0.56628 0.01474 16.6727 1.11163 0.0239 0.14227379 5.64951 0.0967 48.5326 0.67278 10.6753
Kansas City Chiefs 30.60146 40.6577 3.00161 74.26 0.4121 0.5879 0.0688 5.56715 10.9713 6.36414 5.83395 0.57995 1.80332 0.04434 18.595 2.65889 0.0404 0.78884223 4.57206 0.0616 45.8378 0.29469 16.22718
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22.63907 30.8724 1.72483 55.24 0.4099 0.5901 0.0529 3.58321 11.9298 6.51746 7.50206 0.53252 1.1323 0.03575 6.18009 1.18004 0.0235 0.31875285 6.25637 0.1106 42.6278 0.44744 9.935343
Atlanta Falcons 23.35328 37.0898 3.34448 63.79 0.3661 0.6339 0.0827 4.28167 11.3533 7.72392 8.59482 0.6669 0.65139 0.01722 13.5912 0.38523 0.0067 0.07057016 4.63399 0.0714 44.1242 0.53216 6.454854
Carolina Panthers 28.87177 27.5294 2.27534 58.68 0.4921 0.5079 0.0763 4.81114 14.8795 9.26055 5.90607 0.62295 1.1269 0.04097 19.7087 2.04664 0.0378 0.53312701 4.86814 0.0830 42.7292 0.36297 9.64822
New Orleans Saints 19.15129 45.3525 2.38709 66.89 0.2863 0.7137 0.0500 3.99781 11.7344 7.0715 8.0328 0.57891 1.01627 0.02153 19.2155 0.39711 0.0067 0.4952889 4.05185 0.0583 47.3888 0.41353 11.99756
Dallas Cowboys 19.27889 42.542 2.04242 63.86 0.3019 0.6981 0.0458 3.16103 10.936 7.53106 6.3108 0.69316 2.28591 0.05408 20.3589 2.06579 0.0366 0.36604483 3.85 0.0607 41.0563 0.40806 5.293369
Philadelphia Eagles 32.79276 37.3606 2.70738 72.86 0.4501 0.5499 0.0676 4.97296 13.6908 7.85989 6.05 0.5958 0.99475 0.02763 14.1625 1.94847 0.0333 0.65963884 4.78922 0.0680 48.3518 0.78119 10.28816
Washington Redskins 31.45263 31.4935 2.8343 65.78 0.4781 0.5219 0.0826 5.16465 11.6486 7.97911 7.94424 0.66411 0.30561 0.00941 7.89802 1.68866 0.0262 0.19666204 5.85686 0.0865 41.9069 0.63201 7.766508
New York Giants 22.3 39.0953 1.11451 62.51 0.3567 0.6433 0.0277 3.62997 12.1632 7.74737 7.41756 0.60838 1.02993 0.02516 27.1384 1.04751 0.0175 0.1584822 3.48063 0.0533 41.8301 0.46687 4.08772
Chicago Bears 28.79703 27.5494 3.14634 59.49 0.4840 0.5160 0.1025 3.36783 13.1474 7.73178 6.71859 0.57502 1.32989 0.0472 14.4612 0.45499 0.0081 0.86911289 4.30588 0.0709 41.8593 0.32328 8.394501
Detroit Lions 25.60455 48.1188 2.57287 76.30 0.3356 0.6644 0.0508 3.59767 11.0913 7.35268 6.97897 0.67377 0.6669 0.01409 27.3229 0.6519 0.0105 0.94288814 3.83573 0.0510 41.0019 0.41175 30.12418
Green Bay Packers 23.15229 39.2136 3.69688 66.06 0.3505 0.6495 0.0862 3.95664 10.1522 7.15079 5.55583 0.70936 0.69871 0.01794 8.19036 1.46361 0.0252 0.38653609 4.2902 0.0653 45.7755 0.34438 5.154076
Minnesota Vikings 30.01977 29.6619 2.02005 61.70 0.4865 0.5135 0.0638 3.89216 8.97492 5.89082 4.30708 0.63142 0.09312 0.00302 13.2559 1.75953 0.0290 0.55652668 4.8549 0.0759 43.9595 0.52194 10.61875
San Francisco 49ers 31.35143 28.0386 2.82692 62.22 0.5039 0.4961 0.0916 5.26273 10.2809 6.61622 5.55808 0.63654 0.28454 0.01004 23.3539 1.83929 0.0313 0.42453941 3.78051 0.0602 45.7016 0.21152 18.13556
St. Louis Rams 24.59223 32.5357 3.24154 60.37 0.4074 0.5926 0.0906 3.67784 11.4672 6.79859 7.32288 0.59989 1.10151 0.03426 16.8269 0.93972 0.0187 0.46046113 4.64902 0.0778 45.8636 0.53628 7.763767
Arizona Cardinals 25.35958 35.497 3.96688 64.82 0.3912 0.6088 0.1005 2.8167 11.5344 6.98706 6.92107 0.61523 0.8893 0.02544 12.6354 2.04834 0.0367 0.26898945 6.87402 0.1075 48.1432 0.33561 9.033238
Seattle Seahawks 40.3147 24.9723 1.87702 67.16 0.6002 0.3998 0.0699 4.71525 10.4222 6.34897 9.46431 0.62071 1.16045 0.04735 13.5614 0.35203 0.0058 0.45434752 4.64657 0.0704 50.8804 0.47102 7.219943


Then I take those stats and forecast the macthups for any week.

plays run pass sack com% int% ret fum% lost% punt ret kr pen plays yards points TD% FG% sc TD FG
Buffalo Bills 58.96 27.22 30.66 1.08 0.51 0.05 29.11 0.04 0.85 39.20 18.99 26.76 28.47 4.41 3.85 17.64 0.07 0.84 0.16 2.46 2.07 0.32
avg 3.68 10.79 2.74 1.67 -30.61 2.34 1.99 5.54 0.43 6.72 0.17 6.91 15.30 15.15 17.68 0.05 0.82 0.04 14.47 0.97
yards 100.03 170.17 -2.96 267.24 -130.89 -119.28 30.98 -215.05 144.92 30.49 18.51 235.47 12.72 14.89
-124.00 -64.27 12.95 -175.32 -114.00 -67.33 4.83 -65.39 -45.92 5.54 -24.53
yards 224.03 234.44 -15.90 442.56 -16.90 -51.95 44.51 -149.66 190.83 36.03 17.67 697.88 39.50 39.42
avg 6.50 11.60 5.43 0.25 -1.87 2.53 0.87 4.12 0.01 3.46 0.65 9.25 39.22 42.55 36.29 0.09 0.39 0.11 34.79 2.89
San Francisco 49ers 68.30 34.45 30.93 2.93 0.65 0.01 19.09 0.04 0.34 44.87 35.22 31.03 37.49 3.90 1.74 10.40 0.09 0.67 0.33 7.45 4.97 0.96
plays run pass sack com% int% ret fum% lost% punt ret kr pen plays yards points TD% FG% sc TD FG
Tennessee Titans 64.48 19.91 42.06 2.51 0.70 0.01 42.84 0.02 0.94 53.86 18.71 42.50 48.50 4.87 3.71 16.57 0.08 0.41 0.59 4.41 1.81 2.09
avg 3.73 11.27 6.22 0.42 -13.41 1.43 1.34 4.88 0.36 7.26 0.60 8.77 17.36 23.47 17.38 0.06 0.80 0.07 12.64 6.27
yards 74.34 330.11 -15.59 388.86 -38.90 -80.59 47.20 -141.89 280.15 42.72 19.13 485.11 25.35 21.89
-43.19 181.71 -11.83 126.69 -67.55 -51.24 4.65 77.40 67.46 5.25 -4.33
yards 117.53 148.40 -3.76 262.17 28.65 -29.35 30.54 -219.29 212.69 47.97 14.97 327.09 21.85 26.22
avg 3.32 7.20 3.49 -0.47 0.35 1.33 0.49 4.41 0.64 4.29 0.55 12.65 31.12 23.76 32.76 0.09 0.87 0.09 23.28 6.57
Minnesota Vikings 65.35 35.39 28.89 1.08 0.71 -0.02 7.93 0.02 0.37 38.81 12.86 31.29 36.82 3.79 2.10 11.03 0.07 0.57 0.43 5.85 3.33 2.19
plays run pass sack com% int% ret fum% lost% punt ret kr pen plays yards points TD% FG% sc TD FG
San Diego Chargers 70.07 37.44 31.37 1.26 0.75 0.03 -1.86 0.03 0.48 48.12 10.90 26.13 31.93 5.91 2.03 11.96 0.08 0.58 0.42 6.07 3.53 2.80
avg 4.75 10.69 4.78 0.92 11.50 2.12 1.02 3.23 0.48 4.88 0.58 7.79 34.54 35.37 32.84 0.08 1.10 0.09 24.69 8.39
yards 177.83 251.07 -6.01 422.89 -43.46 -61.13 42.87 -178.47 194.79 46.03 15.65 531.53 33.97 34.11
117.23 -62.25 8.19 63.17 74.24 -40.49 3.59 -24.73 7.02 5.79 11.63
yards 60.60 313.32 -14.20 359.72 -117.70 -20.64 49.76 -153.74 187.76 51.82 19.45 446.52 22.96 22.48
avg 4.47 10.37 8.11 1.69 -16.49 0.61 0.34 3.94 0.25 7.32 0.58 7.83 22.31 21.34 22.99 0.06 0.82 0.06 19.72 3.32
New Orleans Saints 64.98 13.56 49.67 1.75 0.61 0.03 20.14 0.01 0.57 51.30 6.16 25.01 30.78 6.61 2.91 16.85 0.08 0.68 0.32 4.17 2.82 1.11
plays run pass sack com% int% ret fum% lost% punt ret kr pen plays yards points TD% FG% sc TD FG
Houston Texans 67.65 44.94 22.93 -0.23 0.59 0.00 6.86 0.00 0.46 47.90 13.44 18.94 24.87 8.20 1.81 10.04 0.08 0.63 0.37 6.93 4.39 1.47
avg 4.35 11.13 3.62 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.04 4.61 0.54 2.64 0.59 6.46 37.39 34.42 34.71 0.09 0.58 0.10 30.75 4.40
yards 195.44 149.48 0.82 345.74 -0.71 -2.41 40.66 -268.62 118.85 52.99 10.09 339.18 33.63 34.57
118.62 -18.93 12.06 111.75 111.86 81.21 6.43 -6.99 -38.01 15.76 25.00
yards 76.82 168.41 -11.24 234.00 -112.57 -83.62 41.75 -261.63 156.86 68.75 7.80 63.60 8.16 9.57
avg 3.55 12.33 4.11 1.27 -36.40 1.82 1.39 8.26 0.54 6.92 0.68 10.51 11.63 11.86 8.37 0.05 1.10 0.03 6.46 1.87
New York Jets 57.17 21.65 32.78 2.74 0.42 0.04 41.00 0.04 0.77 46.25 8.30 26.04 32.83 6.54 4.91 19.72 0.05 0.62 0.38 1.49 0.92 0.62


I do that 5 different times for 5 categories, where the final numbers end up looking like this:

  rush   pass   sack                
  att yards att yards no yards   t/os ST pen projection  spread score
Buffalo Bills 26 104 33 203 1 -5 301 3.3 -57 -36   17.2   3
San Francisco 49ers 33 193 30 224 3 -16 400 1.2 57 -43 -18.2 35.4 -9.0 45
                             
Tennessee Titans 21 74 39 288 2 -15 348 1.7 92 -47   20.0   7
Minnesota Vikings 34 125 32 191 1 -6 309 0.6 -92 -49 -7.3 27.3 -4.5 30
                             
San Diego Chargers 34 155 32 265 1 -8 411 1.5 -2 -49   30.5   24
New Orlean Saints 17 72 46 301 2 -14 359 2.0 2 -52 6.2 24.2 -3.5 31
                             
Houston Texans 40 172 26 177 0 -2 346 0.5 -89 -53   28.9   23
New York Jets 24 88 33 192 2 -12 268 2.5 89 -64 12.6 16.3 9.5 17




With this formula I've been able to win higher than 57% versus the spread since 2008 and hope to improve on that in the future.  It is also with this formula that I base my weekly rankings I tweet on twitter:
 





























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