NFL Playoff Projections  (6/6)

SUPER BOWL XLV

 

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Super Bowl

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yards

att

yards

no

yards

 

t/os

ST

pen

projection

spread

score

 

(what's due)

Pittsburgh Steelers

26

107

28

213

4

-28

293

1.5

24

-57

 

15.4

 

25

 

22

Green Bay Packers

21

56

37

280

3

-19

318

1.6

-24

-34

-3.4

18.8

-2.5

31

3.5

18

Originally my formula had the Packers winning by only 2 points and it bothered me that the odds makers had -2.5, where the Packers ended up covering.  So I went back and changed my formula to honor schedule strength and home vs away stats (The Packers won three straight games on the road) and I got the Packers favored by 3 for the main projection.  The What's due still liked Pittsburgh and for good reason.



Championship Games (2/2)

 

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Conference Champ

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yards

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yards

no

yards

 

t/os

ST

pen

projection

spread

score

 

(what's due)

New York Jets

27

89

37

222

2

-15

296

1.4

15

-48

 

15

 

19

 

16

Pittsburgh Steelers

27

90

29

210

3

-21

279

1.1

-15

-49

-5

20

-3.5

24

-4.4

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Green Bay Packers

24

82

38

311

2

-13

380

1.6

-6

-33

 

22

 

21

 

25

Chicago Bears

22

91

27

180

5

-34

237

2.1

6

-50

8

14

3.5

14

5.3

20

Getting the Steelers and Packers was a piece of cake during the AFC and NFC Championship games.  All my numbers liked the favorites and I made easy money thanks to both numbers (2010 projections and what's due) agree.  64% for 2010.  The projected score was only 1 point off from the actual score.  Warning my numbers are not made for Over/unders.  Never bet over/unders!


Divisional Playoffs (1/1)

 

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Divisional

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yards

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yards

 

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ST

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projection

spread

score

 

(what's due)

Baltimore Ravens

24

62

34

228

3

-24

266

1.6

-22

-36

 

13

 

24

 

18

Pittsburgh Steelers

26

101

32

240

2

-17

325

1.2

22

-66

-6

19

-3.0

31

2.1

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Green Bay Packers

23

102

36

303

2

-13

392

1.6

19

-45

 

20

 

48

 

22

Atlanta Falcons

26

107

34

204

2

-19

292

1.4

-19

-40

3

17

-2.0

21

1.2

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seattle Seahawks

21

68

36

211

2

-12

267

2.4

-35

-55

 

14

 

24

 

17

Chicago Bears

27

108

34

262

3

-23

347

1.6

35

-40

-14

28

-10.0

35

-8.0

25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New York Jets

32

146

38

252

2

-9

389

1.9

28

-46

 

19

 

28

 

18

New England Patriots

26

97

30

225

2

-12

311

0.4

-28

-37

-10

29

-9.0

21

-4.7

23

 

The only game for this week my numbers agreed on was the Packers vs Falcons game.  Originally the old formula had the Patriots covering both ways against the Jets.


Wild Card (2/2)

 

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Wild Card

att

yards

att

yards

no

yards

 

t/os

ST

pen

projection

spread

score

 

(what's due)

New Orleans Saints

25

98

44

328

2

-13

414

1.7

-28

-51

 

26

 

36

 

30

Seattle Seahawks

23

88

31

195

2

-13

270

1.7

28

-48

8

18

10.5

41

12.3

18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New York Jets

35

172

33

223

1

-8

386

0.9

106

-55

 

26

 

17

 

19

Indianapolis Colts

22

68

41

255

1

-7

316

1.5

-106

-35

2

24

-2.5

16

-2.4

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltimore Ravens

30

124

35

266

3

-18

372

0.9

60

-43

 

23

 

30

 

31

Kansas City Chiefs

30

125

32

176

2

-13

287

0.8

-60

-65

8

16

3.0

7

19.2

12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Green Bay Packers

26

100

34

287

2

-17

370

1.5

15

-32

 

26

 

21

 

22

Philadelphia Eagles

23

133

33

233

4

-28

338

1.8

-15

-67

7

19

-2.5

16

-4.9

27


Picking the Ravens over the Chiefs was one of the easiest picks of the season.  I even tweeted about it.  (Same with the Colts vs Jets.)


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